The Antidote: Volume 4 Issue 4
Table of contents
Thinking about the future
T KippenbergerStates many organizations are forced to rely on personally held, often idiosyncratic, views regarding the future. Looks at how the founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, Ken…
Talking about scenarios
T KippenbergerWeighs up the word scenario and its use in modern business. Emphasizes that scenario methodologies come into three categories, which are: intuitive logic; trend‐impact analysis;…
A perceptive and persistent pioneer
T KippenbergerDiscusses Pierre Wack, the Frenchman credited, along with Ted Newland, as the developer of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, that then developed and used scenarios to good…
Weaving plots for alternative futures
T KippenbergerAdvocates a good scenario as one that captures the dynamics of the situation and communicates the point effectively. Suggests the best way to develop a manageable number of such…
Creating the future
T KippenbergerLooks at an approach to scenario planning characterized by its future‐oriented attitude, and attributed to Michel Godet — a French strategy specialist. Uses a Figure depicting…
Using scenarios to develop the right resources and capabilities
T KippenbergerRecounts an approach to scenario management with a German viewpoint. States scenarios are a way of helping organizations to reduce the uncertainties inherent in developing the…
Variations on a theme
T KippenbergerStates there are there different methodologies for managing alternative futures: intuitive logic; trend‐impact analysis; and cross‐impact analysis. Goes on to give in‐depth…
Forming judgements
T KippenbergerCites research that shows that unfacilitated groups often perform below their potential, but there is always room for improvement in group decision making. Discusses the Delphi…
Putting scenarios at the heart of strategy
T KippenbergerSubmits that many organizations adopt, unwittingly, the rationalist approach to strategy formulation. Reckons that scenarios provide business planners with means of bringing…
Pitfalls in scenario planning
T KippenbergerLists 20 common pitfalls regarding scenario planning and divides them into 2 parts: process; and content. Uses a shaded box to highlight other things to watch out for — these…
Putting scenarios to use
T KippenbergerDeclares the effort involved in scenario creation means organizations are loath to publicize them. Depicts corporate scenarios in the public domain as: Statoil; Digital Equipment…