Guatemalan-US ties will continue to strengthen

Significance

Support from Washington helped President Bernardo Arevalo take power in January, resetting relations after a period of strain under former President Alejandro Giammattei (2020-24). Arevalo intends for a US-backed anti-corruption drive to encourage private-sector investment in Guatemala, while Washington seeks Guatemalan assistance in addressing record migrant arrivals at its southern border.

Impacts

• Violence will increase as corruption networks attempt to defend their positions.
• Stronger migration restrictions will exacerbate people-smuggling.
• Arevalo will act as an interlocutor in US talks with other Central American governments that have less friendly relations with Washington.