Natural disasters and agricultural trade in China: analyzing the role of transportation, government and diplomacy
China Agricultural Economic Review
ISSN: 1756-137X
Article publication date: 18 April 2024
Issue publication date: 21 May 2024
Abstract
Purpose
Natural disasters profoundly influence agricultural trade sustainability. This study investigates the effects of natural disasters on agricultural production imports in China within 2002 and 2018. This exploration estimates the mediating role of transportation infrastructure and agriculture value-added and the moderating role of government effectiveness and diplomatic relations.
Design/methodology/approach
This investigation uses Probit, Logit, Cloglog and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models.
Findings
The results confirm the mediating role of transportation infrastructure and agriculture value-added and the moderating role of government effectiveness and diplomatic relations in China. According to the findings, natural disasters in trading partners heighten the risk to the agricultural imports. This risk raises, if disasters damage overall agricultural yield or transportation infrastructure. Moreover, governments’ effective response or diplomatic ties with China mitigate the risk. Finally, the effect of disasters varies by the developmental status of the country involved, with events in developed nations posing a greater risk to China’s imports than those in developing nations.
Originality/value
China should devise an early warning system to protect its agricultural imports by using advanced technologies such as data analytics, remote sensing and artificial intelligence. In addition, it can leverage this system by improving its collaboration with trading partners, involvement in international forums and agreement for mutual support in crisis.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
Funding: This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation Project [Grant Fund Number: 71863031].
Citation
Zhao, Y., Cheng, Z. and Chai, Y. (2024), "Natural disasters and agricultural trade in China: analyzing the role of transportation, government and diplomacy", China Agricultural Economic Review, Vol. 16 No. 2, pp. 226-248. https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-08-2023-0233
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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